Social service purchasing in China: Rationale,features, and risks

As part of a broader program of market reform, China's local governments are progressing an agenda of purchasing child welfare and other social services from the nongovernment sector, primarily to expand capacity and address vast unmet need. This paper draws on current research evidence to explore the approaches to purchasing emerging in China, examining the rationale for purchasing and models of supply, competition, and regulation. While some approaches are modeled on direct service contracting, direct purchasing of social service “posts” is also used, aimed at achieving goals of professionalization alongside service expansion. Overall, the review shows purchasing is helping to rapidly expand service scale and capacity; however, regulatory strategies for managing and mitigating risks to quality and access appear lacking. This highlights the need for further scholarship aimed at developing the robust risk management strategies which are required to support high quality, sustainable provision of purchased services.     

Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour to Understand Motivation to Register Births in Lombok,Indonesia

Despite government interest in promoting birth registration, more than a third of Indonesian children do not have a birth certificate, affecting the realisation of both their human and citizen rights. While barriers to registering children's births in Indonesia have been assessed, there is limited research on how communities perceive the importance of having a birth certificate. This study used focus group discussions to explore parental motivations around birth registration. The results of a thematic analysis found that perceived use of birth certificates, perceived control over the application process and social norms related to certificate ownership affect the intention to apply.     

Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science

ABSTRACT

Scientific research of all kinds should be guided by statistical thinking: in the design and conduct of the study, in the disciplined exploration and enlightened display of the data, and to avoid statistical pitfalls in the interpretation of the results. However, formal, probability-based statistical inference should play no role in most scientific research, which is inherently exploratory, requiring flexible methods of analysis that inherently risk overfitting. The nature of exploratory work is that data are used to help guide model choice, and under these circumstances, uncertainty cannot be precisely quantified, because of the inevitable model selection bias that results. To be valid, statistical inference should be restricted to situations where the study design and analysis plan are specified prior to data collection. Exploratory data analysis provides the flexibility needed for most other situations, including statistical methods that are regularized, robust, or nonparametric. Of course, no individual statistical analysis should be considered sufficient to establish scientific validity: research requires many sets of data along many lines of evidence, with a watchfulness for systematic error. Replicating and predicting findings in new data and new settings is a stronger way of validating claims than blessing results from an isolated study with statistical inferences.     

The covariance of the backward and forward recurrence times in a renewal process: the stationary case and asymptotics for the ordinary case

In a Poisson process, it is well-known that the forward and backward recurrence times at a given time point t are independent random variables. In a renewal process, although the joint distribution of these quantities is known (asymptotically), it seems that very few results regarding their covariance function exist. In the present paper, we study this covariance and, in particular, we state both necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be positive, zero or negative in terms of reliability classifications and the coefficient of variation of the underlying inter-renewal and the associated equilibrium distribution. Our results apply either for an ordinary renewal process in the steady state or for a stationary process.     

Conditional design of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is often designed assuming the process parameters are known. In practice, the parameters are rarely known and need to be estimated from Phase I samples. Different Phase I samples are used when practitioners construct their own control chart's limits, which leads to the “Phase I between-practitioners” variability in the in-control average run length (ARL) of control charts. The standard deviation of the ARL (SDARL) is a good alternative to quantify this variability in control charts. Based on the SDARL metric, the performance of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters is investigated in this paper. Some recommendations are given based on the SDARL metric. The results show that the EWMA median chart requires a much larger amount of Phase I data in order to reduce the variation in the in-control ARL up to a reasonable level. Due to the limitation of the amount of the Phase I data, the suggested EWMA median chart is designed with the bootstrap method which provides a good balance between the in-control and out-of-control ARL values.     

Complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers for pairwise NQD random variables

The authors study the strong convergence for sequences of pairwise negatively quadrant dependent (NQD) random variables under some wide conditions, and present some new theorems on the complete convergence and the strong laws of large numbers. The obtained results extend and improve some theorems in existing literature.     

How Moroccan‐Dutch parents learn in communities of practice: Evaluating a bottom‐up parenting programme

Research shows that top‐down‐designed parenting programmes do not always meet the needs of postmigration parents. Bottom‐up programmes by migrant organizations hold a promise to fill this gap; however, research about these programmes and appropriate evaluation methodologies is scarce. Drawing upon Wenger's ( 2010 ) “communities of practice,” this paper explores an alternative perspective on parenting programme evaluation. Findings are presented from a study looking into social learning processes of postmigration parents who participated in a bottom‐up programme about raising teenagers in urban areas. Using an ethnographically inspired method combined with a preprogramme and postprogramme design, 115 Moroccan‐Dutch mothers and fathers from 15 programme groups participated. Results show that the programme provided a social learning space in which parents used themselves as resources to learn collectively about parenting. Moreover, parents consciously engaged in learning interactions across learning spaces stretched into their social networks. These analyses showed how parents' development of “learning citizenship” (Wenger, 2009 ) provides us with insight in collective learning dimensions present in a bottom‐up parenting programme, which is often not included in evaluation studies. Implications for practitioners as facilitators of parents' collective learning are presented.     

Creating a positive emotional culture: Effect of internal communication and impact on employee supportive behaviors

The study surveyed 506 employees in the United States to test the effect of internal communication (i.e., corporate-level symmetrical and leadership-level responsive communications) on fostering a positive emotional culture characterized by companionate love, joy, pride, and gratitude. In addition, we tested the interplay between corporate internal communication and a positive emotional culture and its influence on supportive employee behaviors, specifically, organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) and employee advocacy. Results indicated that symmetrical communication and responsive leadership communication cultivated a positive emotional culture in organizations. Such culture also fostered employee OCB and advocacy. Moreover, corporate symmetrical communication directly and positively influenced employee OCB. Finally, this study found that employee OCB positively affected employee advocacy. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings for public relations scholars and practitioners were discussed.     

《民族学刊》2014~2018年影响因子比较分析——基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》数据

《民族学刊》于2010年6月创刊，相继入选“复印报刊资料重要转载来源期刊”“北大核心期刊”“人文社科核心期刊”和“CSSCI来源期刊”，表明了《民族学刊》在学界和期刊界的学术影响，其期刊的影响因子值得研究和探讨。本文基于《中国学术期刊影响因子年报（人文社会科学）》公布的影响因子、各类计量指标和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量等数据，对《民族学刊》的相应数据与C95民族学类期刊在期刊影响力指数、影响因子均值及量效指数均值、各类计量指标均值和人文社科类影响因子、被引频次及可被引文献量均值等方面进行统计对比，分析《民族学刊》2014~2018年五年间的影响因子数据在民族学类期刊位置及其学术影响。